P09 / LOSS MODELPROFESSIONAL TOOL
Loss Event Probability Modeler
Model expected annual loss from 1–10 risk events using triangular distributions. View exceedance probabilities, aggregate PML, and the impact of mitigation controls.
Risk and Coverage Cluster
Professional users usually need to move between exposure sizing, limit adequacy, and scenario modelling. This cluster keeps those supporting paths shallow and crawlable.
Total Expected Annual Loss
£1,166,833
Aggregate PML
£6,073,714
Probable Maximum Loss
Mitigated Expected Loss
£816,775
Mitigation Benefit
£350,058
30.0% reduction
Expected Annual Loss by Event
Cyber Incident
0.4× /yr — 40% mitigated
Min
£50,000
Most Likely
£250,000
Max
£2,000,000
Expected Annual
£306,667
Fire / Property Damage
0.15× /yr — 30% mitigated
Min
£100,000
Most Likely
£500,000
Max
£5,000,000
Expected Annual
£280,000
Liability Claim
0.6× /yr — 20% mitigated
Min
£25,000
Most Likely
£150,000
Max
£1,000,000
Expected Annual
£235,000
Business Interruption
0.25× /yr — 25% mitigated
Min
£80,000
Most Likely
£350,000
Max
£2,500,000
Expected Annual
£244,167
Supply Chain Failure
0.3× /yr — 35% mitigated
Min
£30,000
Most Likely
£180,000
Max
£800,000
Expected Annual
£101,000
Base expected loss
After mitigation
INDICATIVE ONLY — Loss modelling uses triangular distributions as simplifications. Actual loss distributions may be heavy-tailed, correlated, or subject to regime changes not captured here. PML is an approximation. This tool does not replace actuarial loss modelling or catastrophe modelling. Consult a qualified actuary or risk engineer before using outputs for insurance purchasing or capital allocation.
Cluster Hubs
Use these organising pages when you want the main calculators and supporting guides for this topic grouped in one place.
Related Calculators
Move sideways to closely related calculators without leaving the same topic cluster.
Use the Business Interruption Sum InsuredCalculate BI sum insured using gross profit, trend uplift, indemnity period, and ICOW.Use the Coverage Gap AnalysisMap policy limits against exposures across property, liability, BI, and cyber lines.Use the Total Cost of Risk (TCOR)Aggregate premiums, retained losses, admin, and risk control costs. Four scenario comparison.Use the Risk Score & Heat MapScore risks by likelihood and impact. 5×5 heat map, editable register.
Related Guides
Use these supporting explainers when you need the formula, assumptions, or decision framing behind the numbers.
Read Predictive Analytics PortfolioBusiness Interruption Sum Insured: How It WorksWork through BI sum-insured logic and indemnity-period sizing.Human Life Value: How Income Replacement Maths WorksKeep protection-gap and income-replacement framing attached to the broader coverage cluster.Cyber-Resilient Agency: Protecting Client DataConnect breach exposure to control investment and coverage planning.